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It will come as no surprise as to what the main topic of conversation is for this edition, and that of course is inflation. It was a big week, with both the US and UK reporting their latest figures. First up we had weaker than expected data from the US. Year on year to October inflation rose at a lower than expected 3.2%, which compared to the consensus forecast of 3.3% and previous reading of 3.7%.
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Stop, wait a minute…Not often you get to quote a lyric from a Mark Ronson song in market commentary, but it seemed quite apt this week.
Welcome to what is the 100th edition of Ear to the Ground. Given this anniversary, I thought I would look back at that first edition, drawing from it where we were then to where we are now, covering any predictions which were being made at the time.
It has been a week of mixed data for the UK. At the beginning of the week we saw the release of the latest average earnings data to August. This was weaker than the consensus forecast, coming in at 8.1% versus 8.3% including bonuses.
This week was one for inflation data, in particular from the US, as the market continues to try and interpret whether we have reached the terminal Fed Funds rate for this cycle.
A difficult market for assets this week, with particular pressure seen at the long end of yield curves, as they continued to steepen. With the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve having left base rates on hold at their last meetings, shorter term yields have remained relatively anchored.
Eyes were focussed on the latest core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) data from the US, a figure seen as the preferred measure of inflation for the US Federal Reserve.