There was good news for the UK economy this week, which grew faster than expected in May. Although a lagging indicator, it was good all the same to see an expansion of 0.4% posted, double the consensus forecast of 0.2%.

In the UK there has been one focus only this week and that is on the General Election. The result is now in and is very much in line with expectations

This was a much quieter week in terms of economic data being released. In the US the focus was on the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) index, being the US Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) preferred measure for inflation

Ready, steady, not quite yet. This week saw the Bank of England meet to set interest rates. Unlike the European Central Bank, Canadians or Danes, they weren’t quite ready to cut interest rates, and held at 5.25% as forecast.

This week we saw two western central banks take the plunge and cut their interest rate. First up we had the Bank of Canada, who beat their southern neighbours to the table and reduced by 0.25% to 4.75%.

There can be little doubt that the story of the week was the decision to call a UK general election for the 4th July. Between now and then we will hear from each party their stance regarding policy.

All eyes were on UK jobs data last week, as forecasters looked for hints that the tightness in the market could be wearing off. It wasn’t to be however.

It was a big week for the UK in terms of economic data being released. Although a lagging indicator, it was good to see the UK economy exit recession in the first quarter of 2024.

Very little economic data from the UK this week to attract the attention. Perhaps the most headline grabbing release was the Nationwide Housing Prices survey to April which showed month on month values fell 0.4%

Focus was on the Bank of Japan this week as they met to discuss interest rate and monetary policy. As expected, they decided to keep their short term interest rate unchanged at 0%-1%.

Inflation data was the key focus of attention for UK investors this week. Year on year, the consumer price index rose by 3.2%.

Eyes were focussed on US economic data releases this week, with little coming out of the UK. There was positive news for the US economy with the release of manufacturing data to March.

After the flurry of central bank activity last week, the economic calendar has been a little more sedate. In the UK there has been little data to breakdown

This week was one of central bank domination. First up we had the Bank of Japan who, after eight years of negative rates, hiked their short term interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0%-0.1%.

UK economic data releases took a back seat in what was Budget week. In terms of the predictions for inflation and economic growth announced, it was pleasing to hear that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

Very little economic data out of the UK this week, with the Nationwide House Price Index the only real topic of discussion. Year on year, we saw the first increase in the last 12 months, rising 1.2%.

Despite the half term holidays there has been enough to keep eyes on this week. In the UK we saw the release of the GfK Consumer Confidence data for February.

After a quiet week on the data front last week, this week has proved anything but. In the UK we have heard about the jobs market, inflation, growth, and retail sales.

After the excitement of the US jobs data last Friday, where 353,000 jobs were added, way above the consensus forecast of 180,000, this week has been very quiet on the economic data front.

It was the Bank of England’s turn this week to vote on interest rates and, in line with consensus forecast, they voted to leave the base rate unchanged at 5.25%.

Eyes were on US economic growth this week, with advanced figures released for the fourth quarter of 2023. Whilst the rate of growth was lower than that seen in the third quarter, it came in above consensus forecast.

This week was one providing the Bank of England with mixed messages. Early in the week we saw wage inflation data which continued to decline on a year on year basis. Average earnings including bonuses rose 6.5% in 3 months, year on year to November.

There has been enough economic data out this week to keep the market scratching their heads as to when the first interest rate cut will be, and by how much.

After excitement through December that interest rates look like they will be cut in the major developed markets during this year, data out this week has perhaps reminded us that nothing is necessarily plain sailing.

To pivot or not to pivot, that was the question. This week we saw the meeting of the Bank of England, European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

After the excitement of November we have seen a more sedate start to December.

It will come as no surprise as to what the main topic of conversation is for this edition, and that of course is inflation.

Stop, wait a minute…Not often you get to quote a lyric from a Mark Ronson song in market commentary, but it seemed quite apt this week.

Welcome to what is the 100th edition of Ear to the Ground. Given this anniversary, I thought I would look back at that first edition, drawing from it where we were then to where we are now, covering any predictions which were being made at the time.

It has been a week of mixed data for the UK. At the beginning of the week we saw the release of the latest average earnings data to August. This was weaker than the consensus forecast, coming in at 8.1% versus 8.3% including bonuses.

This week was one for inflation data, in particular from the US, as the market continues to try and interpret whether we have reached the terminal Fed Funds rate for this cycle.

A difficult market for assets this week, with particular pressure seen at the long end of yield curves, as they continued to steepen. With the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve having left base rates on hold at their last meetings, shorter term yields have remained relatively anchored.

Eyes were focussed on the latest core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) data from the US, a figure seen as the preferred measure of inflation for the US Federal Reserve.

Taking centre stage were again the central banks, in particular the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve.

It was a busier week for economic data this week. Starting in Europe we had the European Central Bank (ECB) meet to set interest rate policy.

There was very little in terms of UK economic data this week, anyone would think that it was the end of the summer school holidays! What we did have was the latest UK house price data, this time from Halifax.

With UK economic data thin on the ground focus fell on the Nationwide House Price index this week.

UK economic data was a little thin on the ground but we ended with some positive news regarding the economy. Preliminary data showed that the UK economy grew in the second quarter by 0.2%.

We saw a small spike in equity market volatility this week, but for once the predominant driver wasn’t central banks. Instead, the credit (pardon the pun) goes to Fitch, the rating agency, who took the surprise decision to downgrade the credit rating of US federal government debt from the much coveted AAA rating to AA+.

Not a week appears to go by where we aren’t discussing inflation.

Markets succumbed to a bout of weakness in the second half of the week…

A quieter week for data on both sides of the Atlantic this week…

It is difficult to put pen to paper, or should I say fingers to the keyboard, these days without making reference to central banks.

This week was another big one for central banks, with both the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Federal Reserve meeting to set interest…

This week could perhaps be defined as one of mixed messages and about turns.

The good, the bad, but hopefully not the ugly. The UK had news this week which quite nicely fits into all three categories.

Economic data has been thinner on the ground over the last week. That which we have seen, however, appears to suggest that a US recession remains on the horizon.

We start with the UK this week where, as expected, the Bank of England hiked rates by a further 0.25% to 4.5%. This was the 12th consecutive rise, with there again being split opinion, with 7 voting in favour of the hike whilst 2 voted in favour of no change.

It was more about economic growth rather than inflation when it came to data released and there were a few surprises. In the US we saw the release of the first estimate for first quarter GDP.

It was more about economic growth rather than inflation when it came to data released and there were a few surprises. In the US we saw the release of the first estimate for first quarter GDP.

Further interest rate hikes were back on the cards in the UK after stronger than expected UK inflation data. Firstly we had average earnings figures where, excluding bonuses, we saw a 6.6% increase, year on year.

There were mixed feelings surrounding the US inflation data released this week. Pleasing the market, we saw the annual rate of inflation fall for the ninth consecutive month to 5%, the lowest level recorded since May 2021.

Weaker economic data set the tone for interest rate expectations in the US last week. Firstly, we had the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). This came in at 46.3 for March.

After the events of the previous two weeks a quieter few days was probably in order. In the UK, economic data was on the lighter side.

The central banks of the US and UK continued their battle against inflation this week, both lifting their key interest rate by 0.25%. This took the US Fed Funds Rate to 4.75%-5% and the UK base rate to 4.25%.

There are some weeks when content for Ear to the Ground is hard to come by. This week is certainly not one of those weeks. We touched upon Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in our previous edition. The UK arm was successfully sold to HSBC.

This week we heard from Jerome Powell who provided his update to Congress. Here he confirmed that he was prepared to increase the pace of interest rate hikes if the data warranted this.

With February now drawn to a close, we provide a summary of market movements for the month rather than the usual Fund Focus, which will return next week.

Whilst the result was already known, the market keenly awaited the publishing of the minutes of the last US Federal Reserve meeting. These revealed that the majority of the policy setting committee members had voted in favour of a 0.25% hike.

Here in the UK, a congratulations to the FTSE 100 which breached the 8,000 level for the first time. Despite weak earnings from Barclays, there were strong earnings posted by Centrica, whose principal activity is the supply of electricity and gas in the UK.

The preliminary release for fourth quarter GDP in the UK showed that the UK economy stalled in the period. Although third quarter figures were revised down, showing a contraction of -0.2%, the flat figure meant that the economy narrowly avoided recession.

I am very much at risk of sounding like a broken record, again, but… it was again a week when central banks around the world stole the limelight. In the US, the Federal Reserve raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 0.25% to 4.5%-4.75%.

A quieter week on the economic data front, with little out of the UK or the Euro area. In the latter there were numerous speeches made by ECB members which appear suggest that

We start in the east this week, Japan in particular, where we had a number of announcements. Firstly, we had the Bank of Japan meet to decide on the level of interest rates. Here the decision was made to keep the rate on hold at -0.1%, which was in line with market expectations.

This week we saw the World Bank make a change to its investment outlook for 2023. The organisation had previously forecast that the global economy would grow by 3% this year.

Some might have expected the first week back in 2023 to be a quiet affair. This has proved not to be the case, however. In the US we had the release of the December FOMC meeting.

“Follow the leader”! Or instead of a game of “Simon Says”, are we currently witnessing a game of “Powell Says”? This week was a week for interest rate decisions, with respective committees meeting in the US, UK and the EU. First up we had the US Federal Reserve, as expected, raised interest rates by 0.5% to the 4.25%-4.50% range. This was the seventh consecutive rate hike…

It was the turn of Halifax to report weaker house prices this week, following a negative report by Nationwide last week. Halifax reported that house prices had fallen by 2.3% in the month of November, the largest drop since November 2008. In the US meanwhile, some economic data surprised to the upside. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for November came out at a stronger-than-expected…

It has been a quieter one on the UK economic data front this week, especially in the UK. There was data out regarding the housing market and it was no real surprise to see a fall in both price and activity here. Mortgage approvals and mortgage lending came in lower than in the previous month and also below forecast.

A little quieter on the economic front this week. The release of the FOMC minutes from the previous meeting contained no real surprises and reflected very much what was said by Chair Powell in the post-meeting press conference and statements made by other Fed governors since. The Minutes confirmed the…

This week saw the release of the UK budget. Some are terming it as being a ‘rescue’ budget and this is understandable given the forecasts made by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). They forecast that the economy will contract by 1.4% in 2023, before expanding by 1.3% in 2024, 2.6% and 2.7% in the following two years.

A number of central banks have held their latest meeting to set interest rates. The ECB acted in line with expectations, increasing its policy rate by 0.75% to 1.5%. The ECB also offered hints as to the future direction of its rate setting. Whilst further hikes are expected to combat inflation, which is still deemed as being too high, the central bank suggested that pace of rate hikes may be slower moving forward.

This week as again been dominated by central bank actions. Here in the UK we had the Bank of England working busily. Firstly they auctioned their first tranche of government bonds as they looked to reduce their balance sheet holding of £838bn. They sold £750m of gilts which had a remaining maturity of between three and seven years.

A number of central banks have held their latest meeting to set interest rates. The ECB acted in line with expectations, increasing its policy rate by 0.75% to 1.5%. The ECB also offered hints as to the future direction of its rate setting. Whilst further hikes are expected to combat inflation, which is still deemed as being too high, the central bank suggested that pace of rate hikes may be slower moving forward.

It is fair to conclude that this week has again been dominated by politics, with the resignation of Liz Truss stealing the headlines. This has been very well publicised in great depth and therefore we will leave it there. From an economic perspective in the UK, this week we saw the release of CPI to September. This came in at 10.1%. This was slightly ahead of the consensus forecast of 10% and given this did little to unnerve markets.

Eyes have been firmly focussed on the US this week as investors awaited the latest inflation print. Although a lagging indicator, the level on inflation in the economy is main factor driving the US Federal Reserve monetary policy. The headline inflation for September came out at 8.2%. Feelings were mixed on its release. ..

This week has very much been a to and fro between whether the US Federal Reserve are about to pivot and adopt a more dovish monetary policy stance, or perhaps less tightening stance would be a more appropriate way to put it. Investors are therefore focussing on every scrap of economic data which they can get their hands on. We appear to be back…

Do we ironically owe them an inadvertent thank you? This may appear to be a very strange suggestion in that, given the turmoil that their latest fiscal plans have brought, that we could even start to think that we owe this to Truss and Kwarteng. I am in no way taking any political sides here but bear with me on this one. In our special edition…

Late last week we saw the first what was meant to be mini-Budget from Kwasi Kwarteng, the new UK Chancellor. Given the level and degree of announcements made however you could be mistaken for thinking that it was indeed a full budget. The tax cuts and levels of spending which the government have committed to are now very well publicised.

Central banks took centre stage this week, with interest being set both in the US and here in the UK. The Federal Reserve were the first to the table, where they increased rates by 0.75%. This was in line with expectations, but some market commentators had touted a full 1% rise, a move adopted by Sweden earlier in the week. This takes US rates to the 3%-3.25% range.

It is difficult to not sound like a broken record at the moment but we are currently within an environment which is very data sensitive, driving which way markets move next, at least in the short term. The case in point was made this week in the US. Inflation had been expected to come in at 8.1% year on year to August, but instead posted a reading of 8.3%…

The latest inflation forecast for the UK from Citi took the market by surprise this week. Updated for a further rally in gas and electricity prices, they believe that a further upside shift in inflation is highly probable and that CPI could peak at over 18% in January. This is some way above the 13.3% predicted by the Bank of England in their latest report.

The US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took markets by surprise at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. Many market commentators had been expecting him to deliver something of a pivotal moment. A softer stance on monetary policy tightening, in particular interest rate hikes, was envisaged given the softer economic data coming through and fears of a recession.

The latest inflation forecast for the UK from Citi took the market by surprise this week. Updated for a further rally in gas and electricity prices, they believe that a further upside shift in inflation is highly probable and that CPI could peak at over 18% in January. This is some way above the 13.3% predicted by the Bank of England in their latest report.

Droughts, blackouts and potentially an inflation top out. With the UK and Europe in the midst of another heatwave we are hearing of more hose pipe bans and of reservoirs drying up. In Europe the shortage has the potential to become the regions next big enemy.

This week was always going to be about the Bank of England and it indeed proved to be the case. The market fully expected that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would raise rates by 0.5% to 1.75% and they delivered accordingly. This was the largest increase seen in 27 years. This move was supported by eight of the nine committee members…

Something we might be a little bit more reticent to bring home however is the nation’s favourite cheeseburger, after McDonalds announced last week that it will see its first price increase in over 14 years. It wasn’t just a small increase either, with a 20% hike being imposed. The company is also to pass on the cost of higher fuel and ingredients onto other items on their menu.

It ain’t half hot! In a week which saw record temperatures in the UK, it wasn’t just the weather which had us all a lot hot under the collar. UK inflation figures revealed that CPI had increased to 9.4% in June, the highest reading since 1982 and marginally above market forecasts of 9.3%. It is perhaps unsurprising to hear that fuel and food were the largest contributors to the increase.

What goes up, must come down. But not quite yet! US inflation again surprised to the upside this week, with the release for June coming out at an eye watering 9.1%. This was up from 8.6% in May, above market forecasts of 8.8% and the highest reading since…

Politics have certainly been at the top of the agenda this week, with the resignation of Boris Johnson being the focal point. As should probably be expected, however, the investment market response has been fairly muted. There was some sign of sterling strength following the announcement but markets soon reverted to business as usual.

It has been a quieter week for economic releases this week but that does not mean this has been reflected in investment markets. The inflation debate continues to rumble on, with investors and market analysts trying to anticipate when and where it will peak. Inflation appears to be on a different expansionary path in some countries and regions when compared to others…

Not a week seems to go by where inflation isn’t in the headlines. This week we saw the release of the latest figures for the UK, with CPI coming in at 9.1%, in line with expectations. Under the bonnet, the rate of inflation was higher across most categories, in particular housing & utilities, transport and food & non-alcoholic beverages.
The squeeze on disposable income is certainly having ramifications.

There are some weeks when news and events come thick and fast and this has most certainly been one of them. Central banks were once again at the fore, with a number of them holding meetings this week. The US Federal Reserve were

This week could potentially best be described as a week of confirmation. The increase in the cost of living has, for a number of months, been expected to have a detrimental impact on economic growth and we have started to see than come through in economic forecasts.

Economic data has been on the quieter side this week relative to the recent barrage which we have had over recent weeks. Wednesday did however see the release of the latest US Federal Reserve minutes. There was nothing really new

Inflation again took centre stage in the UK this week, with the annual CPI inflation rate jumping to 9% in April, the highest level since 1982. Month on month inflation rose by 2.5%, with the key contributor being housing and household services, with cost of renting, mortgages and household bills all on the rise.

This week saw the release of preliminary of GDP figures for the UK. We saw growth of 0.8% growth quarter on quarter, supported by an increase in demand for services, manufacturing and household consumption. Growth was behind…

Central banks were back in the limelight this week. Sound familiar? On Thursday the Bank of England raised the base rate by 0.25% to 1%, in line with market expectations. This was the 4th consecutive…

The market was caught off guard yesterday when US economic growth for Q1 came in much weaker than expected. The economy contracted by an annualised 1.4% in the quarter. This was well below the 6.9% annualised rate…

This week saw the release of the latest economic growth projections by the IMF. Within this they forecast that the global economy will grow by 3.6% this year. This is 0.8% lower than the prediction which they made in January. Even following…

Inflation again took centre stage this week with the release of key data for the UK and the US. In the UK consumer price inflation rose 7% in the 12 months to March, the highest reading since…

This week saw the release of the latest minutes from the FOMC meeting. Whilst they increased rates by 0.25%, the minutes revealed that many members would have preferred a 0.5% hike. Without the conflict in Ukraine, it is likely…

As inflation continues to surprise to the upside and the cost of living increases, the market is now pricing in more interest rates hikes in the US, more than the recent Federal Reserve Dot Plot indicated. There are now 8 hikes of 0.25% fully priced in by the market…

In a further sign that certain stocks are priced for perfection we saw another technology stock take a tumble this week when it missed on expectations. This time it was Roblox, the open gaming platform, who on Wednesday saw their share price fall 26.6%. In good news for the company it reported 49.5m daily…

Central banks were at the fore this week, with meetings at the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve. The Bank of England, as expected, increased the base rate by a further 0.25%, taking it to 0.75%. The MPC voted 8-1 in favour of the move, with one dissenter voting to keep…

The above jumble of letters may appear a strange way to begin an investment topic. However, this arrangement has significance in terms of the way in which we view things, including investment opportunities. Indeed, in the world of behavioral finance, this can play a significant role. So, what does…

The conflict between the Ukraine and Russia continued to take centre stage this week. With no sign of de-escalation, countries and companies continue to try and exert pressure on Russia in whichever way they can. Countries around the world continue to increase trade…

Within this article we focus our attention on the conflict in the Ukraine and the impact it has had to date on financial markets and the economy. Firstly however, we acknowledge that the invasion of the Ukraine by Russia has captured the thoughts and feelings…

Unfortunately the main news this week is the very sad events which are now developing in the Ukraine. I think we are all aware of what is now happening so I won’t look to go into detail. The UK, EU and the US began with a round of sanctions as their initial response and it is likely that these will be ramped up…

In a further sign that certain stocks are priced for perfection we saw another technology stock take a tumble this week when it missed on expectations. This time it was Roblox, the open gaming platform, who on Wednesday saw their share price fall 26.6%…

Inflation again took centre stage on Thursday as the US released their latest figures. Headline CPI came out at a rather eye-watering 7.5%, the highest reading since February 1982 and above market consensus of 7.2%. Core CPI…

This week we expected the Bank of England meeting on Thursday to sit at the top of the agenda. However, activity in certain equities this week has eclipsed this and moved into top spot. On Thursday we saw Facebook parent Meta’s share…

All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve this week as they met to discuss interest rates and the size of the central bank balance sheet. Last week we reported that the likelihood was that they would leave rates…

This has certainly been a week for headlines. There does not seem to be a week where we don’t mention inflation and this week will prove no exception.

Inflation was back to taking centre stage this week with the release of the latest rate in the US.

Taking centre stage this week was the release of the minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting.

For those who enjoy a biscuit with their cuppa they may be wise to stock up now. McVitie’s became the latest company to warn customers that the price of their products could rise…

Central banks took centre stage this week. First up we had the US Federal Reserve. At their meeting they confirmed that they are doubling the pace of tapering to $30bn a month which…

This week saw the release of US inflation, with the annual rate hitting 6.8% in November, the highest reading since June 1982. This marked the 9th consecutive month that inflation has been above 2%…

It seemed rather fitting to start with a definition this week of what transitory actually means…

Equity markets are ending the week on a weaker note, with the FTSE 100 down over 2.5%…

Inflation was again in the limelight this week,this time in the UK. Tuesday saw the release…

This week saw the first release of UK GDP for the 3rd quarter. This rose 1.3% on the quarter…

This week the central banks again took centre stage. Unfortunately the ‘unreliable boyfriend’…